Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 46¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.8K
$1.5K
16.7¢ → 46¢
+176% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 19.3¢ | $1.2K | $2.3K | +$1.1K | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR | Noavg 2¢ | $18.2 | $424.58 | +$406.38 | 42% 2368-3215 (5583) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $60.9 | $37.8 | -$23.1 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $24.41 | $26.48 | +$2.07 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $14.84 | $16.26 | +$1.41 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $2.7 | -$0.8 | 59% 31875-22502 (54377) |
Invested
$1,181.6
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$424.58
PnL
+$406.38
Record
42%
2368-3215 (5583)
Invested
$60.9
Value
$37.8
PnL
-$23.1
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$24.41
Value
$26.48
PnL
+$2.07
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$14.84
Value
$16.26
PnL
+$1.41
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.8
Record
59%
31875-22502 (54377)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.