Leeds United FC leading at halftime?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$2.0K
-$183.17
80.3¢ → 73¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84.7¢ | $939.5 | $816.88 | -$122.62 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 80.5¢ | $614.28 | $556.82 | -$57.46 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 73.8¢ | $433.92 | $429.48 | -$4.45 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 74¢ | $152.73 | $154.51 | +$1.78 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $8.01 | $7.22 | -$0.79 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.46 | $4.72 | -$1.74 | 98% 18444-384 (18828) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.65 | $2.97 | +$1.32 | 47% 9585-10702 (20287) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.88 | $2.67 | +$0.79 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
Invested
$939.5
Value
$816.88
PnL
-$122.62
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$614.28
Value
$556.82
PnL
-$57.46
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$433.92
Value
$429.48
PnL
-$4.45
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$152.73
Value
$154.51
PnL
+$1.78
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
RN1<$100Invested
$8.01
Value
$7.22
PnL
-$0.79
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$6.46
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$1.74
Record
98%
18444-384 (18828)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$1.32
Record
47%
9585-10702 (20287)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$2.67
PnL
+$0.79
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.