Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$519.53
42.4¢ → 100¢
+135% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $588.17 | $1.0K | +$435.67 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $1.2K | $665.05 | -$522.04 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 77.7¢ | $367.32 | $390.21 | +$22.89 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.2¢ | $819.77 | $274.84 | -$544.93 | |
 RN1 | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $71.7 | $153.79 | +$82.08 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 78¢ | $134.16 | $135.02 | +$0.86 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 88.8¢ | $48.87 | $49.68 | +$0.8 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $22.77 | $22.77 | +$0 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
 ZaiZoiBele<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.91 | +$0.11 | 80% 5087-1257 (6344) |
Invested
$588.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$435.67
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$1,187.09
Value
$665.05
PnL
-$522.04
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$71.7
Value
$153.79
PnL
+$82.08
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$134.16
Value
$135.02
PnL
+$0.86
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$48.87
Value
$49.68
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.77
Value
$22.77
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
ZaiZoiBele<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.91
PnL
+$0.11
Record
80%
5087-1257 (6344)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.