Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal FC (43%) · Arsenal FC at 95¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Arsenal FC
7
Arsenal FC 43%
$64.1K
-$679.56
95.9¢ → 95¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralArsenal FC at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Arsenal FCavg 96¢ | $61.5K | $60.3K | -$961.5 | 53% 2098-1864 (3962) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Arsenal FCavg 94.1¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$51.5 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Liverpool FCavg 4.1¢ | $794.76 | $968.19 | +$173.44 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 NooseracCTR | Liverpool FCavg 4¢ | $305.61 | $343.81 | +$38.2 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Liverpool FCavg 4¢ | $66.98 | $83.72 | +$16.74 | 51% 4818-4540 (9358) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 95¢ | $55.1 | $55.1 | -$0 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Liverpool FCavg 4.1¢ | $9.63 | $10.22 | +$2.05 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$61,549.51
Value
$60.3K
PnL
-$961.5
Record
53%
2098-1864 (3962)
Invested
$2,299.63
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$51.5
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$794.76
Value
$968.19
PnL
+$173.44
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
NooseracCTRInvested
$305.61
Value
$343.81
PnL
+$38.2
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$66.98
Value
$83.72
PnL
+$16.74
Record
51%
4818-4540 (9358)
Invested
$55.1
Value
$55.1
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$9.63
Value
$10.22
PnL
+$2.05
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.