Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 80¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$19.64

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,497

Combined PnL-$23.36

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares13,792

Combined PnL+$43

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Taroooooo	Noavg 80¢	$5.6K	$4.4K	-$27.92	62% 151-91 (242)
DV dv-pmCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$43.87	49% 3325-3529 (6854)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 80¢	$729.74	$729.74	+$4.56	64% 1960-1090 (3050)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$488.64	$476	-$11.9	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$353.58	$362.41	+$8.84	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$86.6	$86.6	+$0	69% 7203-3188 (10391)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$45.51	$47.76	+$2.25	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$41.2	$41.2	+$0	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.2	$2.2	-$0.06	51% 25736-24442 (50178)

Taroooooo

Invested

$5,585.21

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$27.92

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

dv-pmCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,754.85

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$43.87

Record

49%

3325-3529 (6854)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$729.74

Value

$729.74

PnL

+$4.56

Record

64%

1960-1090 (3050)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$488.64

Value

$476

PnL

-$11.9

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$353.58

Value

$362.41

PnL

+$8.84

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.6

Value

$86.6

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

7203-3188 (10391)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.51

Value

$47.76

PnL

+$2.25

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.2

Value

$41.2

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.