Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 80¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 79.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares28,107

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Over3 traders

Total Value$26.65

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$0.18

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 68.8¢	$13.8K	$15.7K	+$2.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LooksMaxing101	Underavg 71¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$218.22	51% 888-849 (1737)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 68.3¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$269.52	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0xheavy888	Underavg 68.7¢	$409.32	$467.99	+$58.67	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 71¢	$284	$290	+$6	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$705.03	$272.51	+$20.88	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$155.04	$178.98	+$35.34
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.8¢	$107.99	$93.52	-$14.47
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 70¢	$65.18	$67.51	+$2.33	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 68¢	$35.11	$36.91	+$1.81	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$13.12	$13.77	+$0.66	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 25.6¢	$10.73	$10.3	-$0.43	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$2.62	$2.57	-$0.05	48% 1776-1912 (3688)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$13,783.29

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LooksMaxing101

Under

Invested

$2,841.76

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$218.22

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,198.78

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$269.52

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$409.32

Value

$467.99

PnL

+$58.67

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$284

Value

$290

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$705.03

Value

$272.51

PnL

+$20.88

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$155.0468¢+$35.34

Over$107.9924.8¢-$14.47

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$65.18

Value

$67.51

PnL

+$2.33

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$35.11

Value

$36.91

PnL

+$1.81

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.12

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.73

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$0.43

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.