Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden, while the market favors PSV (83%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: PSV (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (33%) · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 18¢ · $522 held · ended Nov 8

PSV83¢SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden17¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Consensus Traders

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 33%

Total Value

$521.9

Combined PnL

$86.98

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 17.5¢

-75% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors PSV 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PSV83%

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden3 traders

Total Value$158.43

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$2.74

PSV6 traders

Total Value$363.48

Total Shares507

Combined PnL+$84.24

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — 33%PSV — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 71.1¢	$137.84	$140.65	+$2.81	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
RN1	PSVavg 57¢	$79.8	$114.8	+$35	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SN SnakeBall<$100	PSVavg 84.5¢	$88.18	$85.17	-$3.01	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
38 38791873984189<$100	PSVavg 57¢	$57	$82	+$25	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTime<$100	PSVavg 32.5¢	$44.74	$69.52	+$24.79	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 72¢	$14.4	$14.5	+$0.1	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	PSVavg 37.5¢	$7.92	$10.26	+$2.34	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.28	-$0.17	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
LI Limousin<$100	PSVavg 32.1¢	$1.6	$1.72	+$0.12	50% 1850-1866 (3716)

rayvanmechelenCTR

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$137.84

Value

$140.65

PnL

+$2.81

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

RN1

PSV

Invested

$79.8

Value

$114.8

PnL

+$35

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

SnakeBall<$100

PSV

Invested

$88.18

Value

$85.17

PnL

-$3.01

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

38791873984189<$100

PSV

Invested

$57

Value

$82

PnL

+$25

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTime<$100

PSV

Invested

$44.74

Value

$69.52

PnL

+$24.79

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost<$100

PSV

Invested

$7.92

Value

$10.26

PnL

+$2.34

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Limousin<$100

PSV

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Research grade

AvoidSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors PSV 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.