Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Burgos CF vs. CD Castellón end in a draw?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 30¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$3.8K
$111.41
30.7¢ → 29.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$69.37 | 38% 154-254 (408) |
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 68¢ | $677.36 | $702.26 | +$24.9 | 49% 258-268 (526) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 69.5¢ | $414.81 | $423.6 | +$5.81 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 70.5¢ | $282 | $278.47 | +$0.02 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $181.16 | $207.04 | +$9.71 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $69 | $71 | +$1.5 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $14.1 | $7.1 | +$0.1 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$69.37
Record
38%
154-254 (408)
Invested
$677.36
Value
$702.26
PnL
+$24.9
Record
49%
258-268 (526)
Invested
$414.81
Value
$423.6
PnL
+$5.81
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$282
Value
$278.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$181.16
Value
$207.04
PnL
+$9.71
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$69
Value
$71
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.1
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.