Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$40.33

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 27.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$377.58

Total Shares429

Combined PnL+$1.61

Yes6 traders

Total Value$607.25

Total Shares2,208

Combined PnL+$38.72

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$551.85	$555.05	+$3.2	—
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$449.35	$440.24	-$3.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$104.37	$114.81	+$6.24
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$373.32	$374.83	+$1.51	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$336.44	$355.85	+$19.41	—
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$86.32	$91.3	+$4.98	—
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$78.97	$86.86	+$7.9	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$34.67	$36.67	+$2	—
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$30.14	$34.54	+$4.4	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$2.75	+$0.1	—
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.99	$2.03	+$0.04	—

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$551.85

Value

$555.05

PnL

+$3.2

Record

—

Both legs:

No$449.3574¢-$3.04

Yes$104.3725¢+$6.24

GC-P

Invested

$373.32

Value

$374.83

PnL

+$1.51

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.44

Value

$355.85

PnL

+$19.41

Record

—

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.32

Value

$91.3

PnL

+$4.98

Record

—

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.97

Value

$86.86

PnL

+$7.9

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.67

Value

$36.67

PnL

+$2

Record

—

forecastication4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.14

Value

$34.54

PnL

+$4.4

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.