Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 2?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 70¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$11.8K
$677.29
70.8¢ → 69.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $4.7K | $5.6K | +$981.36 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $2.7K | $2.5K | -$195.77 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 74.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$74.9 | 62% 795-491 (1286) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 74.1¢ | $918.79 | $903.33 | -$17.97 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $735.17 | $718.99 | -$16.18 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 73¢ | $108.77 | $109.52 | +$0.75 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
Invested
$4,659.51
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$981.36
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$2,692.35
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$195.77
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$2,051.98
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$74.9
Record
62%
795-491 (1286)
Invested
$918.79
Value
$903.33
PnL
-$17.97
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$735.17
Value
$718.99
PnL
-$16.18
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$108.77
Value
$109.52
PnL
+$0.75
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.