Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 1?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $108K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$108.1K
$209.04
89.8¢ → 99.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
71h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $76.4K | $73.4K | $-3.0K | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
 HaileyWelch | Noavg 83.7¢ | $27.3K | $31.5K | +$4.2K | 55% 246-203 (449) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 78.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$278.17 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 82.5¢ | $663.74 | $785.88 | +$122.15 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $2.6K | $396.9 | $-1.4K | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 91¢ | $2.3K | $198.91 | +$34.63 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $58.03 | $48.81 | -$9.22 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$76,398.68
Value
$73.4K
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
HaileyWelchInvested
$27,285.4
Value
$31.5K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
55%
246-203 (449)
Invested
$1,488.56
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$278.17
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$663.74
Value
$785.88
PnL
+$122.15
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$2,583.72
Value
$396.9
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$2,257.51
Value
$198.91
PnL
+$34.63
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
Invested
$58.03
Value
$48.81
PnL
-$9.22
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.