Will Vietnam vs. Chinese Taipei end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 92¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$184.06
-$1.7
89.4¢ → 92¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90¢ | $113.78 | $116.56 | +$2.78 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $43.01 | $38.71 | -$4.3 | 26% 228-657 (885) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $10.08 | $10.08 | +$0 | 31% 176-393 (569) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9.97 | $8.97 | -$1 | 25% 224-671 (895) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.3 | $4.24 | +$0.94 | — |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $3.6 | $3.6 | -$0 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $2.03 | $1.9 | -$0.13 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
Invested
$113.78
Value
$116.56
PnL
+$2.78
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
Invested
$43.01
Value
$38.71
PnL
-$4.3
Record
26%
228-657 (885)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
176-393 (569)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$8.97
PnL
-$1
Record
25%
224-671 (895)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$0.94
Record
—
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.13
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.