Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 42¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$97.35

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 41.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares20,251

Combined PnL-$95.75

Yes3 traders

Total Value$411.17

Total Shares705

Combined PnL-$1.6

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 42¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$95.55	48% 405-446 (851)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 58.8¢	$393.59	$391.71	-$1.88	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 42¢	$168	$166	-$2	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 42¢	$159.01	$160.9	+$1.89	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$77.66	$77.6	-$0.06	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$32.32	$32.71	+$0.38	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$21.61	$21	-$0.61	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$17.25	$16.64	+$0.15	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$16.11	$16.07	+$0.15	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.25	+$0.05	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.81	$2.81	+$0.13	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$8,026.28

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$95.55

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$393.59

Value

$391.71

PnL

-$1.88

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$168

Value

$166

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$159.01

Value

$160.9

PnL

+$1.89

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$77.66

Value

$77.6

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$32.32

Value

$32.71

PnL

+$0.38

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$21.61

Value

$21

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.25

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$0.15

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$16.11

Value

$16.07

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.