Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: Both Teams to Score
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$440.9
-$78.04
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $246.22 | $186 | -$60.22 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44¢ | $153.56 | — | -$153.56 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.8¢ | $92.66 | $186 | +$93.34 | |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $199.37 | — | -$199.37 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 46¢ | $76.06 | $165.34 | +$76.88 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $41.48 | $82.96 | +$41.48 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.63 | $6.6 | +$2.97 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
Invested
$246.22
Value
$186
PnL
-$60.22
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
Invested
$199.37
Value
—
PnL
-$199.37
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Invested
$76.06
Value
$165.34
PnL
+$76.88
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
Invested
$41.48
Value
$82.96
PnL
+$41.48
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.63
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$2.97
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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