Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$9.25

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,280

Combined PnL+$14.11

No4 traders

Total Value$431.92

Total Shares1,251

Combined PnL-$4.86

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YO yohan75	Yesavg 64.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$8.64	53% 273-242 (515)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 65¢	$485.48	$489.21	+$3.73	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 35¢	$377.3	$371.91	-$5.39	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 64.9¢	$274.47	$179.61	+$1.74	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$40.65	$41.25	+$0.6	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$10.53	$10.24	-$0.29	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 34.6¢	$8.3	$8.52	+$0.22	53% 16124-14290 (30414)

yohan75

Yes

Invested

$1,447.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$8.64

Record

53%

273-242 (515)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$485.48

Value

$489.21

PnL

+$3.73

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$377.3

Value

$371.91

PnL

-$5.39

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$274.47

Value

$179.61

PnL

+$1.74

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$40.65

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$0.6

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.