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6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$6.8K
$206.11
94.7¢ → 98¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
104h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XC xcaiox | Noavg 96.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$51.72 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
 tetrase | Noavg 94.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$59.43 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Car | Noavg 93¢ | $930 | $980 | +$50 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
AE Aeglos | Noavg 93.1¢ | $838.2 | $882 | +$41.55 | 82% 18-4 (22) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 92.7¢ | $349.83 | $368.64 | +$18.81 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $40 | $20 | -$20 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $19.6 | +$4.6 | 51% 527-509 (1036) |
Invested
$2,897.6
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$51.72
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
tetraseInvested
$1,532.59
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$59.43
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
CarInvested
$930
Value
$980
PnL
+$50
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$838.2
Value
$882
PnL
+$41.55
Record
82%
18-4 (22)
Invested
$349.83
Value
$368.64
PnL
+$18.81
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$40
Value
$20
PnL
-$20
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$15
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$4.6
Record
51%
527-509 (1036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.