Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 86% (12–2, n=14) · was PM monthly #628 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$84.9K
Record
12W / 2L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 14 settled
Batting Avg
93.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#325
Source
PM monthly #628
Trades
636
Markets
37
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Trump out as President before 2027?No $97K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $30K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $22K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No $3.8K · now 93¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 91¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?No $882 · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
25 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 85¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +3%
- Economy
+6 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 96% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.