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7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $107K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
8
No 88%
$106.9K
$3.9K
94¢ → 92¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 92%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
314h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ElZorro69 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $48.4K | $96.6K | +$3.3K | — 1-0 (1) |
 GoriIIa | Noavg 84.7¢ | $7.0K | $7.6K | +$559.83 | 73% 229-85 (314) |
 tetrase | Noavg 90.1¢ | $992.29 | $1.0K | +$26.69 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 4751346 | Noavg 91¢ | $910 | $920 | +$5 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 87.5¢ | $462.5 | $460 | -$2.5 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 82¢ | $200 | $224.39 | +$23.17 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $42.89 | $39.04 | +$0.4 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $34 | $17 | -$17 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
ElZorro69Invested
$48,402.42
Value
$96.6K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
—
1-0 (1)
GoriIIaInvested
$7,021.38
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$559.83
Record
73%
229-85 (314)
tetraseInvested
$992.29
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$26.69
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
4751346Invested
$910
Value
$920
PnL
+$5
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$462.5
Value
$460
PnL
-$2.5
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$200
Value
$224.39
PnL
+$23.17
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
Invested
$42.89
Value
$39.04
PnL
+$0.4
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$34
Value
$17
PnL
-$17
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.