Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$216.75
43.2¢ → 65.5¢
+52% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BrownBees | Yesavg 47¢ | $684.32 | $800.8 | +$94.64 | 61% 67-43 (110) |
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 52.9¢ | $1.1K | $386.63 | -$496 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $548.47 | $372.22 | -$36.43 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.4¢ | $176.36 | $254.8 | +$64.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.8¢ | $207.95 | $117.42 | -$101.14 | |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $183.81 | $311.34 | +$124.7 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 balthazar | Yesavg 44.3¢ | $186.02 | $239.97 | +$60.51 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $4.76 | $4.17 | -$0.6 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
Invested
$684.32
Value
$800.8
PnL
+$94.64
Record
61%
67-43 (110)
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$1,056.13
Value
$386.63
PnL
-$496
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$548.47
Value
$372.22
PnL
-$36.43
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Both legs:
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$183.81
Value
$311.34
PnL
+$124.7
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
balthazarInvested
$186.02
Value
$239.97
PnL
+$60.51
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.17
PnL
-$0.6
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.