Consensus PnL $71K · win rate 62% (67–41, n=108) · was PM monthly #895 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$70.6K
Record
67W / 41L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 108 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1083
Source
PM monthly #895
Trades
52
Markets
136
Volume
$228.3K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $3.6K · now 12¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.7K · now 43¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 78¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $1.0K · now 10¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (85% of 26)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes $275 · now 4¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $243 · now 10¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (94% of 35)
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes $184 · now 13¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
86 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 45¢- Tech
+28 pts
side won 80% of 56 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +27%
- Soccer
+18 pts
side won 43% of 14 · avg entry 25¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 25% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 75% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 100% of 21)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.