Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.3K
$113.23
64¢ → 77.5¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borntoolate.eth | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $428.91 | $502.24 | +$73.33 | 75% 315-103 (418) |
BR BrownBees | Yesavg 69.5¢ | $385.02 | $412.51 | +$27.49 | 61% 67-43 (110) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 53¢ | $132.5 | $186.25 | +$51.25 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 36.2¢ | $126.73 | $116.26 | -$10.47 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 32.8¢ | $128.1 | $99.74 | -$28.36 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
Invested
$428.91
Value
$502.24
PnL
+$73.33
Record
75%
315-103 (418)
Invested
$385.02
Value
$412.51
PnL
+$27.49
Record
61%
67-43 (110)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$132.5
Value
$186.25
PnL
+$51.25
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
balthazarCTRInvested
$126.73
Value
$116.26
PnL
-$10.47
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$128.1
Value
$99.74
PnL
-$28.36
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.