Consensus PnL $142K · win rate 73% (222–84, n=306) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$141.6K
Record
222W / 84L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 306 settled
Batting Avg
59.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#630
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,909
Markets
472
Volume
$27.1M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $3.5K · now 70¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (75% of 96)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $2.8K · now 72¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $2.1K · now 65¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 131)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $926 · now 7¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?Yes $507 · now 77¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?Yes $492 · now 75¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes $2 · now 24¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
335 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 62¢- MMA
+5 pts
side won 74% of 91 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +2%
- Tech
+14 pts
side won 79% of 19 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 73% of 45 · avg entry 69¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 56% of 103 at an average 57¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 8% of 102)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 62% of 34)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 81% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 98% of 173)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.