Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$72.29

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 77¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,208

Combined PnL+$322.33

No4 traders

Total Value$731.03

Total Shares3,215

Combined PnL-$394.62

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BrownBees	Yesavg 65.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$161.52	61% 67-43 (110)
BO borntoolate.eth	Yesavg 66.9¢	$451.92	$506.72	+$75.08	75% 315-103 (418)
eCashCTR	Noavg 42.3¢	$405.6	$220.8	-$151.2	68% 331-155 (486)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 43¢	$392.04	$209.87	-$150.24	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
ME melonmanm	Yesavg 57.9¢	$160.77	$208.13	+$55.68	65% 527-282 (809)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 35.1¢	$378.11	$186.4	-$117.96	18% 365-1640 (2005)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 56.7¢	$113.49	$143.55	+$30.06	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Noavg 18¢	$89.19	$113.97	+$24.78	50% 415-417 (832)

BrownBees

Yes

Invested

$1,355.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$161.52

Record

61%

67-43 (110)

borntoolate.eth

Yes

Invested

$451.92

Value

$506.72

PnL

+$75.08

Record

75%

315-103 (418)

eCashCTR

Invested

$405.6

Value

$220.8

PnL

-$151.2

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$392.04

Value

$209.87

PnL

-$150.24

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

melonmanm

Yes

Invested

$160.77

Value

$208.13

PnL

+$55.68

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$378.11

Value

$186.4

PnL

-$117.96

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$113.49

Value

$143.55

PnL

+$30.06

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Invested

$89.19

Value

$113.97

PnL

+$24.78

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.