Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 44¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$232.85
38.9¢ → 43.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 39.3¢ | $739.85 | $843.37 | +$103.52 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $830.88 | $761.46 | -$69.43 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $686.35 | $601.44 | -$84.91 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42¢ | $144.53 | $160.02 | +$15.49 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 38.5¢ | $549.92 | $660.95 | +$111.02 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38¢ | $158.22 | $188.83 | +$34.62 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
PA pauleta23 | Yesavg 58¢ | $199.59 | $184.1 | -$15.49 | 65% 25411-13605 (39016) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $29.59 | $25.92 | -$0.04 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $25.02 | $24.24 | -$0.78 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$739.85
Value
$843.37
PnL
+$103.52
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$830.88
Value
$761.46
PnL
-$69.43
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Both legs:
Invested
$549.92
Value
$660.95
PnL
+$111.02
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$158.22
Value
$188.83
PnL
+$34.62
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$199.59
Value
$184.1
PnL
-$15.49
Record
65%
25411-13605 (39016)
Invested
$29.59
Value
$25.92
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$25.02
Value
$24.24
PnL
-$0.78
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.