Panathinaikos Athens vs. AEK Athens: O/U 3.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$682.06
64.6¢ → 94¢
+46% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 68.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$206.58 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 RN1 | Underavg 49.1¢ | $664.57 | $1.1K | +$482.73 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 84.6¢ | $599.54 | $598.59 | -$0.95 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 68.4¢ | $297.87 | $318.51 | -$4.66 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 68.4¢ | $172.95 | $190.99 | -$7.26 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 24¢ | $124.92 | $127.52 | +$2.6 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 70¢ | $177.87 | $140 | +$0.54 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $17.15 | $10.33 | -$6.81 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $4.57 | $4.53 | -$0.03 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$1,158.06
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$206.58
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
RN1Invested
$664.57
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$482.73
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$599.54
Value
$598.59
PnL
-$0.95
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$297.87
Value
$318.51
PnL
-$4.66
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$177.87
Value
$140
PnL
+$0.54
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$17.15
Value
$10.33
PnL
-$6.81
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.