Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 2?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 55¢ · $376 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$376.5
-$47.25
64.5¢ → 55¢
-15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry | Noavg 55¢ | $19.05 | $146.45 | -$5.53 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $99.31 | $85.05 | -$14.26 | 50% 2042-2017 (4059) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $61.04 | $50.87 | -$10.17 | 42% 1795-2476 (4271) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $61.94 | $44.84 | -$17.1 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $23.52 | $20.59 | -$1.9 | 54% 7712-6458 (14170) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $15.96 | $17.61 | +$1.66 | 55% 561-452 (1013) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $10.57 | $11.09 | +$0.07 | 41% 943-1365 (2308) |
Invested
$19.05
Value
$146.45
PnL
-$5.53
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
Invested
$99.31
Value
$85.05
PnL
-$14.26
Record
50%
2042-2017 (4059)
Invested
$61.04
Value
$50.87
PnL
-$10.17
Record
42%
1795-2476 (4271)
Invested
$61.94
Value
$44.84
PnL
-$17.1
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
Invested
$23.52
Value
$20.59
PnL
-$1.9
Record
54%
7712-6458 (14170)
Invested
$15.96
Value
$17.61
PnL
+$1.66
Record
55%
561-452 (1013)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$11.09
PnL
+$0.07
Record
41%
943-1365 (2308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.