Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 2?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$98.53

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,289

Combined PnL+$70.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.85

Total Shares1,120

Combined PnL+$28.21

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stupid22	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$2.38	96% 636-29 (665)
24 241532532432	Noavg 88¢	$393.48	$446.75	+$53.49	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82¢	$65.86	$80.31	+$14.45	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$2.1	$0.45	-$1.87	18% 4056-19002 (23058)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.27	$0.19	-$35.08	41% 943-1365 (2308)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.7	$0.14	-$12.7	50% 2042-2017 (4059)
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$281.2	$0.07	+$77.87	53% 3389-3008 (6397)

stupid22

Invested

$4,757.14

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.38

Record

96%

636-29 (665)

241532532432

Invested

$393.48

Value

$446.75

PnL

+$53.49

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$65.86

Value

$80.31

PnL

+$14.45

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.87

Record

18%

4056-19002 (23058)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.27

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$35.08

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$12.7

Record

50%

2042-2017 (4059)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.2

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$77.87

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.