Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 2?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 91¢ · $375 held · ends Nov 2

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$374.72

Combined PnL

$21.16

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 91¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$333.29

Total Shares370

Combined PnL+$49.03

Yes3 traders

Total Value$41.44

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$27.86

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 77¢	$214.73	$198.43	+$36.77	17% 402-1972 (2374)
BI Bilberry	Noavg 81.8¢	$106.41	$115.09	+$8.68	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$38.54	$21.58	-$20.04	55% 561-452 (1013)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.1¢	$26.68	$19.04	-$7.62	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$4.12	$16.63	+$3.65	41% 943-1365 (2308)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 93¢	$3.21	$3.14	-$0.07	42% 1898-2621 (4519)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.81	$0.81	-$0.2	58% 1615-1157 (2772)

Istaroth

Invested

$214.73

Value

$198.43

PnL

+$36.77

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

Bilberry

Invested

$106.41

Value

$115.09

PnL

+$8.68

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.54

Value

$21.58

PnL

-$20.04

Record

55%

561-452 (1013)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.68

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$7.62

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$16.63

PnL

+$3.65

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.07

Record

42%

1898-2621 (4519)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.