Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on November 2?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 100¢ · $592 held · ended Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$591.63

Combined PnL

$26.69

Smart Money Entry

28.2¢ → 99.6¢

+253% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$550.55

Total Shares565

Combined PnL+$49.48

No4 traders

Total Value$40.25

Total Shares127

Combined PnL-$22.79

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 4.5¢	$16.2	$344.59	-$13.33	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
balthazar	Yesavg 71.3¢	$141.7	$197.52	+$55.81	55% 25961-21246 (47207)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 70.7¢	$43.02	$39.83	-$3.2	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$1.47	$8.45	+$7	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 39.8¢	$19.94	$0.3	-$19.64	60% 7180-4743 (11923)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 0.3¢	$0.04	$0.08	+$0.04	37% 1395-2381 (3776)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$0.03	$0.04	+$0	44% 4031-5224 (9255)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$344.59

PnL

-$13.33

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$141.7

Value

$197.52

PnL

+$55.81

Record

55%

25961-21246 (47207)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

$39.83

PnL

-$3.2

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$7

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$19.64

Record

60%

7180-4743 (11923)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

37%

1395-2381 (3776)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

4031-5224 (9255)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.