Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (93%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 2?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 7.0¢ · $289 held · ended Nov 2

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$288.72

Combined PnL

-$142.97

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 7¢

-85% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$255.66

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$106.15

No4 traders

Total Value$33.06

Total Shares744

Combined PnL-$249.12

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Yesavg 45.2¢	$101.13	$194.64	+$93.51	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$22.04	$50.96	+$9.66	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 53.5¢	$173.03	$17.76	-$155.27	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 41.3¢	$332.6	$12.71	-$92.33	17% 402-1972 (2374)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 66.2¢	$6.87	$10.06	+$2.99	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$0.46	$1.39	+$0.93	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 12.2¢	$3.64	$1.19	-$2.45	35% 710-1327 (2037)

Bilberry

Yes

Invested

$101.13

Value

$194.64

PnL

+$93.51

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.04

Value

$50.96

PnL

+$9.66

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$173.03

Value

$17.76

PnL

-$155.27

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$332.6

Value

$12.71

PnL

-$92.33

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.87

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$2.99

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$2.45

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.