Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 77¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$10.8K
-$301.75
80.4¢ → 77¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
430h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 79.8¢ | $8.1K | $7.9K | -$247.93 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$119.03 | 73% 350-129 (479) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 86.7¢ | $506.43 | $442.25 | -$64.17 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j | Noavg 73.2¢ | $323.58 | $344.67 | +$14.47 | 64% 85-47 (132) |
ME melonmanmCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $170.09 | $340.35 | +$170.26 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $350 | $273.61 | -$50.33 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $75.22 | $70.2 | -$5.02 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
tetraseInvested
$8,101.06
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$247.93
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$1,536
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$119.03
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$506.43
Value
$442.25
PnL
-$64.17
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$323.58
Value
$344.67
PnL
+$14.47
Record
64%
85-47 (132)
Invested
$170.09
Value
$340.35
PnL
+$170.26
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
paddaaCTRInvested
$350
Value
$273.61
PnL
-$50.33
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$75.22
Value
$70.2
PnL
-$5.02
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.