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6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 62¢ · $26K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
7
No 86%
$25.8K
$-1.7K
68.8¢ → 62¢
-10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 62%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
468h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 68.2¢ | $16.8K | $14.5K | $-1.2K | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 73¢ | $5.5K | $4.7K | -$790.74 | 73% 350-129 (479) |
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j | Noavg 65.5¢ | $4.9K | $4.7K | -$264.5 | 64% 85-47 (132) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $510.95 | $1.2K | +$679.95 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 77¢ | $720.69 | $584.98 | -$135.71 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
 GonTanaka<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $90.45 | $84.38 | -$6.75 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $71.44 | $55.49 | -$16.39 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
tetraseInvested
$16,846.85
Value
$14.5K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$5,476.54
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$790.74
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
Invested
$4,891
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$264.5
Record
64%
85-47 (132)
viniiCTRInvested
$510.95
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$679.95
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$720.69
Value
$584.98
PnL
-$135.71
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
GonTanaka<$100Invested
$90.45
Value
$84.38
PnL
-$6.75
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
Invested
$71.44
Value
$55.49
PnL
-$16.39
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.