Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 94¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$15.5K
$5.7K
39¢ → 94¢
+141% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1799h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
41 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j | Noavg 37.9¢ | $5.9K | $14.5K | +$8.7K | 64% 85-47 (132) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $416.6 | $594.18 | +$177.58 | 73% 350-129 (479) |
DE denizzCTR | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $1.8K | $179.36 | $-1.6K | 68% 597-284 (881) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $851.02 | $84.98 | -$745.67 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 65.7¢ | $511.86 | $46.71 | -$465.14 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $380.64 | $37.19 | -$343.45 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $22.84 | $10.62 | -$12.22 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
Invested
$5,857.12
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$8.7K
Record
64%
85-47 (132)
Invested
$416.6
Value
$594.18
PnL
+$177.58
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
Invested
$1,765.46
Value
$179.36
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
68%
597-284 (881)
paddaaCTRInvested
$851.02
Value
$84.98
PnL
-$745.67
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$511.86
Value
$46.71
PnL
-$465.14
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$380.64
Value
$37.19
PnL
-$343.45
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$22.84
Value
$10.62
PnL
-$12.22
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.