W15 Maanshan: Xinle Geng vs Xichen Zhao

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Xinle Geng (67%) · Xinle Geng at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Xinle Geng96¢Xichen Zhao4¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xinle Geng

Consensus Traders

Xinle Geng 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$105.36

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 96¢

+108% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralXinle Geng at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xinle Geng

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xinle Geng96%

Xichen Zhao4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xinle Geng4 traders

Total Value$622.19

Total Shares952

Combined PnL+$114.41

Xichen Zhao2 traders

Total Value$26.23

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$9.05

Xinle Geng — 67%Xichen Zhao — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Xinle Geng. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXinle Geng 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Xinle Geng 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Xichen Zhaoavg 67.6¢	$362.79	$442.86	+$80.07	28% 149-389 (538)
└ Xinle Geng leg	Xinle Gengavg 27.8¢	$139.17	$300.68	+$161.51
└ Xichen Zhao leg	Xichen Zhaoavg 67.6¢	$223.62	$142.18	-$81.44
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Xichen Zhaoavg 60.5¢	$806.52	$434.77	+$8.32	48% 1257-1350 (2607)
└ Xichen Zhao leg	Xichen Zhaoavg 60.5¢	$336.01	$239.01	-$67.38
└ Xinle Geng leg	Xinle Gengavg 36.8¢	$120.06	$195.75	+$75.7
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Xinle Gengavg 23.8¢	$175.5	$320.62	+$145.12	53% 1783-1584 (3367)
FL Flaznorp	Xinle Gengavg 71¢	$309.7	$261.74	-$47.96	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
alpheclabs2<$100	Xinle Gengavg 20.9¢	$8	$23	+$15.01	46% 108-128 (236)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Xichen Zhaoavg 60¢	$30	$21.5	-$8.5	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
US User7429<$100	Xinle Gengavg 52¢	$14.58	$16.82	+$2.24	23% 102-342 (444)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Xichen Zhaoavg 48¢	$5.28	$4.73	-$0.55	46% 230-271 (501)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Xichen Zhao

Invested

$362.79

Value

$442.86

PnL

+$80.07

Record

28%

149-389 (538)

Both legs:

Xinle Geng$139.1727.8¢+$161.51

Xichen Zhao$223.6267.6¢-$81.44

38791873984189ARB<$100

Xichen Zhao

Invested

$806.52

Value

$434.77

PnL

+$8.32

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

Both legs:

Xichen Zhao$336.0160.5¢-$67.38

Xinle Geng$120.0636.8¢+$75.7

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Xinle Geng

Invested

$175.5

Value

$320.62

PnL

+$145.12

Record

53%

1783-1584 (3367)

Flaznorp

Xinle Geng

Invested

$309.7

Value

$261.74

PnL

-$47.96

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

alpheclabs2<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

Value

$23

PnL

+$15.01

Record

46%

108-128 (236)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Xichen Zhao

Invested

$30

Value

$21.5

PnL

-$8.5

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

User7429<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$14.58

Value

$16.82

PnL

+$2.24

Record

23%

102-342 (444)

lryyyCTR<$100

Xichen Zhao

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

230-271 (501)

Research grade

NeutralXinle Geng at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Xinle Geng

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Xinle Geng. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXinle Geng 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Xinle Geng 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xinle Geng wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.