Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Merel Hoedt, while the market favors Yujia Huang (65%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Brisbane: Merel Hoedt vs Yujia Huang

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Merel Hoedt (14%) · Merel Hoedt at 36¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Merel Hoedt36¢Yujia Huang64¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Merel Hoedt

Consensus Traders

Merel Hoedt 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$63.33

Research grade

NeutralMerel Hoedt at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Merel Hoedt

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yujia Huang 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Merel Hoedt36%

Yujia Huang65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Merel Hoedt1 trader

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,996

Combined PnL+$431.99

Yujia Huang6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,513

Combined PnL-$368.67

Merel Hoedt — 14%Yujia Huang — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Merel Hoedtavg 52.1¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$431.99	59% 3573-2526 (6099)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yujia Huangavg 42.1¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$296.65	54% 1508-1259 (2767)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yujia Huangavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$980.58	-$150.17	50% 1208-1223 (2431)
└ Yujia Huang leg	Yujia Huangavg 44.5¢	$818.5	$597.18	-$221.32
└ Merel Hoedt leg	Merel Hoedtavg 55¢	$312.25	$383.4	+$71.15
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Merel Hoedtavg 49.7¢	$698.54	$531.73	+$37.92	48% 532-568 (1100)
└ Merel Hoedt leg	Merel Hoedtavg 49.7¢	$277.68	$376.84	+$109.59
└ Yujia Huang leg	Yujia Huangavg 45.9¢	$218.91	$154.9	-$71.66
OM omnibus-076daa	Yujia Huangavg 41.7¢	$156.77	$127.01	-$29.76	32% 132-277 (409)
machinelearned<$100	Yujia Huangavg 48.8¢	$86.84	$57.88	-$28.96	27% 207-553 (760)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Yujia Huangavg 62¢	$55.79	$55.79	+$0	49% 23-24 (47)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Yujia Huangavg 45.4¢	$59.38	$39	-$12.13	13% 49-318 (367)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Yujia Huangavg 56¢	$2.8	$1.63	-$1.17	55% 44-36 (80)

RN1CTR

Merel Hoedt

Invested

$2,687.7

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$431.99

Record

59%

3573-2526 (6099)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yujia Huang

Invested

$1,704.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$296.65

Record

54%

1508-1259 (2767)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$1,130.75

Value

$980.58

PnL

-$150.17

Record

50%

1208-1223 (2431)

Both legs:

Yujia Huang$818.544.5¢-$221.32

Merel Hoedt$312.2555¢+$71.15

38791873984189ARB<$100

Merel Hoedt

Invested

$698.54

Value

$531.73

PnL

+$37.92

Record

48%

532-568 (1100)

Both legs:

Merel Hoedt$277.6849.7¢+$109.59

Yujia Huang$218.9145.9¢-$71.66

omnibus-076daa

Yujia Huang

Invested

$156.77

Value

$127.01

PnL

-$29.76

Record

32%

132-277 (409)

machinelearned<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$86.84

Value

$57.88

PnL

-$28.96

Record

27%

207-553 (760)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$55.79

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

23-24 (47)

thestingsnake<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$59.38

Value

$39

PnL

-$12.13

Record

13%

49-318 (367)

Eulhunter<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$1.17

Record

55%

44-36 (80)

Research grade

NeutralMerel Hoedt at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Merel Hoedt

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yujia Huang 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Merel Hoedt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.