Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sae Noguchi, while the market favors Sara Saito (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Yokohama: Sae Noguchi vs Sara Saito

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sae Noguchi (57%) · Sae Noguchi at 0.1¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 18

Sae Noguchi<1¢Sara Saito>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sae Noguchi

Consensus Traders

Sae Noguchi 57%

Total Value

$229.93

Combined PnL

-$396.54

Smart Money Entry

40.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSae Noguchi at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sae Noguchi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Sara Saito 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sae Noguchi0%

Sara Saito100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sara Saito3 traders

Total Value$194.82

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$37.97

Sae Noguchi4 traders

Total Value$35.11

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$434.5

Sara Saito — 43%Sae Noguchi — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Sae Noguchi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSae Noguchi 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSae Noguchi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sae Noguchi 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Sara Saitoavg 72.9¢	$86.98	$112.19	+$25.21	40% 253-373 (626)
CI cigarettes<$100	Sara Saitoavg 82¢	$65.98	$78.05	+$12.07	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
RN1CTR	Sae Noguchiavg 56.2¢	$433.67	$23.15	-$410.52	57% 3991-3004 (6995)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sae Noguchiavg 4¢	$11.15	$8.36	-$2.79	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
PA pauleta23<$100	Sara Saitoavg 80¢	$3.9	$4.58	+$0.68	27% 174-464 (638)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sae Noguchiavg 23¢	$22.99	$3	-$19.99	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Sae Noguchiavg 9¢	$1.8	$0.6	-$1.2	27% 142-383 (525)

omnibus-076daa

Sara Saito

Invested

$86.98

Value

$112.19

PnL

+$25.21

Record

40%

253-373 (626)

cigarettes<$100

Sara Saito

Invested

$65.98

Value

$78.05

PnL

+$12.07

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

RN1CTR

Sae Noguchi

Invested

$433.67

Value

$23.15

PnL

-$410.52

Record

57%

3991-3004 (6995)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sae Noguchi

Invested

$11.15

Value

$8.36

PnL

-$2.79

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

pauleta23<$100

Sara Saito

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.68

Record

27%

174-464 (638)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Sae Noguchi

Invested

$22.99

Value

PnL

-$19.99

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Sae Noguchi

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

27%

142-383 (525)

Research grade

AvoidSae Noguchi at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sae Noguchi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Sara Saito 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Sae Noguchi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSae Noguchi 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSae Noguchi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sae Noguchi 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sae Noguchi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.