W50 Yokohama: Rina Saigo vs JiaYi Wang

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rina Saigo (50%) · Rina Saigo at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Rina Saigo>99¢JiaYi Wang<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rina Saigo

Consensus Traders

Rina Saigo 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$200.97

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 99.6¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRina Saigo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rina Saigo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rina Saigo100%

JiaYi Wang0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rina Saigo4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL+$258.77

JiaYi Wang4 traders

Total Value$80.62

Total Shares1,352

Combined PnL-$57.8

Rina Saigo — 50%JiaYi Wang — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Rina Saigo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rina Saigo) and the top 1000 (7 on JiaYi Wang) disagree here.

ctrJiaYi Wang 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRina Saigo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000JiaYi Wang 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Rina Saigoavg 81.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$118.49	57% 3975-2973 (6948)
38 38791873984189	Rina Saigoavg 69.4¢	$511.74	$654.42	+$146.69	48% 1171-1252 (2423)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Rina Saigoavg 99.9¢	$108.54	$102.13	-$6.41	41% 3102-4461 (7563)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 1.2¢	$10.02	$50.52	+$40.5	27% 141-378 (519)
PA pauleta23<$100	Rina Saigoavg 94¢	$49.99	$49.99	+$0	27% 172-461 (633)
CI cigarettesCTR	JiaYi Wangavg 25¢	$125	$30	-$95	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.05	-$0.9	53% 1745-1547 (3292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	JiaYi Wangavg 49¢	$2.45	$0.05	-$2.4	30% 354-813 (1167)

RN1

Rina Saigo

Invested

$1,269.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$118.49

Record

57%

3975-2973 (6948)

38791873984189

Rina Saigo

Invested

$511.74

Value

$654.42

PnL

+$146.69

Record

48%

1171-1252 (2423)

xtxpleasecallme

Rina Saigo

Invested

$108.54

Value

$102.13

PnL

-$6.41

Record

41%

3102-4461 (7563)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$10.02

Value

$50.52

PnL

+$40.5

Record

27%

141-378 (519)

pauleta23<$100

Rina Saigo

Invested

$49.99

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

172-461 (633)

cigarettesCTR

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$125

Value

$30

PnL

-$95

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

1745-1547 (3292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

JiaYi Wang

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.4

Record

30%

354-813 (1167)

Research grade

NeutralRina Saigo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Rina Saigo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Rina Saigo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rina Saigo) and the top 1000 (7 on JiaYi Wang) disagree here.

ctrJiaYi Wang 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRina Saigo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000JiaYi Wang 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rina Saigo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.