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RN1NoNoYesNoYesYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Tokushima Vortis vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki end in a draw?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 43%
Total Value
$515.95
Combined PnL
-$101.82
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$496.94
Total Shares497
Combined PnL+$52.69
Yes4 traders
Total Value$19
Total Shares653
Combined PnL-$154.51
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RN1 | Noavg 92¢ | $320.97 | $348.88 | +$27.91 | 53% 62287-54524 (116811) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72.8¢ | $116.91 | $137.07 | +$20.16 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $39.68 | $19 | -$20.68 | 49% 1777-1875 (3652) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $6.38 | $11 | +$4.62 | 47% 9540-10662 (20202) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $5 | $0 | -$1.65 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $17.57 | — | -$17.57 | 50% 1834-1824 (3658) |
WA WagerWizardCTR | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $114.62 | — | -$114.62 | 84% 15051-2928 (17979) |
RN1Invested
$320.97
Value
$348.88
PnL
+$27.91
Record
53%
62287-54524 (116811)
FL
FlaznorpInvested
$116.91
Value
$137.07
PnL
+$20.16
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$39.68
Value
$19
PnL
-$20.68
Record
49%
1777-1875 (3652)
LR
lryyy<$100Invested
$6.38
Value
$11
PnL
+$4.62
Record
47%
9540-10662 (20202)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.65
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$17.57
Value
—
PnL
-$17.57
Record
50%
1834-1824 (3658)
WA
WagerWizardCTRInvested
$114.62
Value
—
PnL
-$114.62
Record
84%
15051-2928 (17979)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1b1fd24e...c5e86b
Slug
ja2-tok-teg-2026-11-07-draw