Will FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$12.11

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 87.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,617

Combined PnL-$37.69

Yes2 traders

Total Value$357.89

Total Shares2,717

Combined PnL+$25.58

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$21.8	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 89¢	$555.32	$542.84	-$12.48	53% 1595-1413 (3008)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$267.32	$285.37	+$19.06	46% 178-207 (385)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 88¢	$177.42	$175.4	-$2.02	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 88¢	$108.63	$107.39	-$1.23	31% 163-361 (524)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$65.99	$72.51	+$6.52	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89¢	$7.14	$6.98	-$0.16	35% 138-259 (397)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,465.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$21.8

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$555.32

Value

$542.84

PnL

-$12.48

Record

53%

1595-1413 (3008)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$267.32

Value

$285.37

PnL

+$19.06

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$177.42

Value

$175.4

PnL

-$2.02

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$108.63

Value

$107.39

PnL

-$1.23

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.99

Value

$72.51

PnL

+$6.52

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.16

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.