Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 99¢ · $113K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$113.0K
-$469.94
99.8¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alohaa | Underavg 99.9¢ | $109.5K | $109.0K | -$438.31 | 64% 1236-701 (1937) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 91.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$16.48 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 91.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$57.44 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 10.8¢ | $371.48 | $412.45 | +$40.97 | |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 93¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$60.81 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 91.7¢ | $615.13 | $644.44 | +$29.31 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 RN1 | Underavg 97.7¢ | $300.37 | $301.69 | +$1.32 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 97.8¢ | $12.09 | $12.3 | +$0.21 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 0.4¢ | $0.03 | $1.03 | +$0.99 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.5¢ | $3.5 | $0.85 | -$2.65 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
Invested
$109,469.14
Value
$109.0K
PnL
-$438.31
Record
64%
1236-701 (1937)
Invested
$1,945
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$16.48
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,131.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$60.81
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$615.13
Value
$644.44
PnL
+$29.31
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
RN1Invested
$300.37
Value
$301.69
PnL
+$1.32
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
poshposh<$100Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.99
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$2.65
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.