Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 10

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$71.12

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 98.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,294

Combined PnL+$150.84

Over3 traders

Total Value$49.83

Total Shares3,322

Combined PnL-$79.72

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 97¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$39.54	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 95.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$60.12	56% 7528-5968 (13496)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 95.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$50.25	58% 49422-35504 (84926)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 90¢	$59.4	$65.01	+$5.61	58% 30358-22188 (52546)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$70.55	$35.28	-$35.27	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100	Underavg 97¢	$25.56	$20.34	-$4.68	64% 8638-4773 (13411)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$57	$14.25	-$42.75	57% 1084-828 (1912)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$2	$0.3	-$1.7	47% 10535-11772 (22307)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,527.62

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$39.54

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,999.98

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$60.12

Record

56%

7528-5968 (13496)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,439.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$50.25

Record

58%

49422-35504 (84926)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$59.4

Value

$65.01

PnL

+$5.61

Record

58%

30358-22188 (52546)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.55

Value

$35.28

PnL

-$35.27

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

youcanbuythisbot<$100

Under

Invested

$25.56

Value

$20.34

PnL

-$4.68

Record

64%

8638-4773 (13411)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$42.75

Record

57%

1084-828 (1912)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.7

Record

47%

10535-11772 (22307)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.