Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-06?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$2.8K
-$1.42
49.8¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 50.2¢ | $681.11 | $671.35 | -$9.76 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 50¢ | $635.71 | $629.36 | -$6.36 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 49.7¢ | $935.82 | $463.23 | -$1.8 | 39% 1339-2113 (3452) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 50¢ | $377.22 | $380.99 | +$3.77 | 40% 1349-2039 (3388) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 50¢ | $204.5 | $202.45 | -$2.05 | 71% 7122-2863 (9985) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 48¢ | $183.44 | $189.17 | +$5.73 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 49.1¢ | $102.11 | $102.86 | +$0.75 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $73.5 | $74.25 | +$0.75 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 49.7¢ | $41.14 | $40.99 | -$0.15 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 53¢ | $246.46 | $2 | +$7.69 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
Invested
$681.11
Value
$671.35
PnL
-$9.76
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$635.71
Value
$629.36
PnL
-$6.36
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
Invested
$935.82
Value
$463.23
PnL
-$1.8
Record
39%
1339-2113 (3452)
Invested
$377.22
Value
$380.99
PnL
+$3.77
Record
40%
1349-2039 (3388)
Invested
$204.5
Value
$202.45
PnL
-$2.05
Record
71%
7122-2863 (9985)
Invested
$183.44
Value
$189.17
PnL
+$5.73
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
HRTradingInvested
$102.11
Value
$102.86
PnL
+$0.75
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
Invested
$73.5
Value
$74.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
Invested
$41.14
Value
$40.99
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
VeryLucky888Invested
$246.46
Value
$2
PnL
+$7.69
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.