Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 25¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 60%
$2.6K
-$772.78
36.1¢ → 24.5¢
-32% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MigRodrCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $2.5K | $1.6K | -$928.82 | 23% 16-55 (71) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 71¢ | $324.58 | $345.15 | +$20.57 | 64% 1890-1047 (2937) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 27¢ | $2.0K | $335.49 | +$130.96 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Yesavg 71.9¢ | $83.22 | $86.16 | +$2.94 | 46% 1301-1520 (2821) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $62.09 | $64.64 | +$2.55 | 39% 1335-2099 (3434) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $62.36 | $62.36 | +$0 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $56 | $56 | +$0 | 71% 7095-2847 (9942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $49.68 | $49.5 | -$0.18 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 25.5¢ | $25.5 | $25 | -$1 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $4.74 | $4.94 | +$0.2 | 58% 19424-14279 (33703) |
Invested
$2,499.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$928.82
Record
23%
16-55 (71)
Invested
$324.58
Value
$345.15
PnL
+$20.57
Record
64%
1890-1047 (2937)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,026.47
Value
$335.49
PnL
+$130.96
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$83.22
Value
$86.16
PnL
+$2.94
Record
46%
1301-1520 (2821)
Invested
$62.09
Value
$64.64
PnL
+$2.55
Record
39%
1335-2099 (3434)
Invested
$62.36
Value
$62.36
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$56
Value
$56
PnL
+$0
Record
71%
7095-2847 (9942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$49.68
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$25
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
19424-14279 (33703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.