Will Valencia CF win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 92¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$150.14

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 91.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,887

Combined PnL+$363.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$478.71

Total Shares5,635

Combined PnL-$513.57

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89¢	$4.49	$4.2K	+$356.75	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90.9¢	$547.66	$551.4	+$3.74	64% 9962-5593 (15555)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$1.0K	$472.18	-$563.71	23% 17-56 (73)
NM NM-P	Noavg 91¢	$374.68	$376.74	+$2.06	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
CA Cannae	Noavg 91.3¢	$134.03	$133.57	-$0.46	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 89¢	$29.05	$29.7	+$0.16	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 86¢	$20	$21.16	+$0.81	53% 2570-2251 (4821)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 89¢	$16.18	$16.55	+$0.36	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$5.49	$4.88	-$0.61	69% 7203-3187 (10390)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$1.5K	$1.65	+$50.76	58% 46667-33629 (80296)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$356.75

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

GC-P

Invested

$547.66

Value

$551.4

PnL

+$3.74

Record

64%

9962-5593 (15555)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,035.89

Value

$472.18

PnL

-$563.71

Record

23%

17-56 (73)

NM-P

Invested

$374.68

Value

$376.74

PnL

+$2.06

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

Cannae

Invested

$134.03

Value

$133.57

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

2570-2251 (4821)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$16.18

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.49

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0.61

Record

69%

7203-3187 (10390)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,504.79

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$50.76

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.