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5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 77¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$8.0K
$83.98
79.1¢ → 76.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
1309h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 79¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$90.77 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$296.94 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 80¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$70.45 | 85% 312-57 (369) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 78.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$60 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $36.84 | $39.3 | +$2.46 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 bosshog<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $30.5 | $38.25 | +$7.75 | 72% 1052-415 (1467) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $35.14 | $33.19 | -$1.95 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$2,868.47
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$90.77
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$1,791.42
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$296.94
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
SeutervoinenInvested
$1,610.31
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$70.45
Record
85%
312-57 (369)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,589.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$60
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$36.84
Value
$39.3
PnL
+$2.46
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
bosshog<$100Invested
$30.5
Value
$38.25
PnL
+$7.75
Record
72%
1052-415 (1467)
Invested
$35.14
Value
$33.19
PnL
-$1.95
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.