Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-11-08?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.1K
-$184.87
89.3¢ → 65¢
-27% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 86.6¢ | $685.61 | $545.03 | -$140.58 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $341.12 | $295.58 | -$21.98 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 93.1¢ | $161.77 | $140.18 | -$10.43 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $833.68 | $111.3 | -$12.54 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $25.86 | $26.54 | +$0.68 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $9.66 | $9.83 | +$0.17 | 53% 2982-2598 (5580) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $4.44 | $3.26 | -$1.18 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $5 | $0.65 | +$1 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$685.61
Value
$545.03
PnL
-$140.58
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1Invested
$341.12
Value
$295.58
PnL
-$21.98
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$161.77
Value
$140.18
PnL
-$10.43
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$833.68
Value
$111.3
PnL
-$12.54
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$25.86
Value
$26.54
PnL
+$0.68
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.66
Value
$9.83
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
2982-2598 (5580)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$1.18
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$5
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.