Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$4.6K
$197.35
54.7¢ → 96¢
+75% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
29 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 37.3¢ | $1.6K | $2.8K | +$1.3K | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 timebrotime | Noavg 94.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$18.03 | 67% 893-435 (1328) |
TR tradexplorer | Noavg 65.7¢ | $328.27 | $479.75 | +$151.48 | 60% 291-194 (485) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 46.5¢ | $214.91 | $173.89 | -$41.01 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 scottiliciousCTR | Yesavg 94¢ | $1.3K | $57.54 | $-1.3K | 82% 945-201 (1146) |
 -Yang-<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $9.4 | $13.02 | +$3.62 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $14.48 | $12 | -$2.48 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
XieGuangKunInvested
$1,593.67
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
timebrotimeInvested
$1,098.76
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$18.03
Record
67%
893-435 (1328)
Invested
$328.27
Value
$479.75
PnL
+$151.48
Record
60%
291-194 (485)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$214.91
Value
$173.89
PnL
-$41.01
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
scottiliciousCTRInvested
$1,335.4
Value
$57.54
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
82%
945-201 (1146)
-Yang-<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$3.62
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
Invested
$14.48
Value
$12
PnL
-$2.48
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.