Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CF Cruz Azul (57%) · CF Cruz Azul at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2
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Neutral
CF Cruz Azul
7
CF Cruz Azul 57%
$1.6K
-$225.47
68.9¢ → 90.5¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCF Cruz Azul at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | CF Cruz Azulavg 76.2¢ | $1.1K | $948.11 | -$198.65 | 50% 25891-25746 (51637) |
UP UpTheBlues | CF Cruz Azulavg 88.5¢ | $427.76 | $422.24 | -$5.52 | 59% 47293-33525 (80818) |
LU LuckyLoo | CF Cruz Azulavg 31¢ | $139.5 | $141.75 | +$2.25 | 49% 13140-13787 (26927) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Club León FCavg 67¢ | $40.2 | $44.4 | +$4.2 | 58% 42958-31249 (74207) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Club León FCavg 62.1¢ | $58.28 | $29.57 | -$28.71 | 50% 34037-33623 (67660) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Club León FCavg 8¢ | $8 | $9 | +$1 | 48% 9222-9929 (19151) |
 HRTrading<$100 | CF Cruz Azulavg 80¢ | $6.25 | $6.2 | -$0.04 | 53% 5950-5352 (11302) |
Invested
$1,146.75
Value
$948.11
PnL
-$198.65
Record
50%
25891-25746 (51637)
Invested
$427.76
Value
$422.24
PnL
-$5.52
Record
59%
47293-33525 (80818)
Invested
$139.5
Value
$141.75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
49%
13140-13787 (26927)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$40.2
Value
$44.4
PnL
+$4.2
Record
58%
42958-31249 (74207)
Invested
$58.28
Value
$29.57
PnL
-$28.71
Record
50%
34037-33623 (67660)
Invested
$8
Value
$9
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
9222-9929 (19151)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.25
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5950-5352 (11302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.