Spread: Pacers (-3.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Pacers52¢Nets48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$19.34

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers52%

Nets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,486

Combined PnL+$11.89

Nets3 traders

Total Value$257.09

Total Shares525

Combined PnL+$7.45

Pacers — 50%Nets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nets) and the top 1000 (5 on Pacers) disagree here.

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Pacersavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$12.26	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$1.0K	$990	-$10	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$520	$500	-$15
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 49¢	$490	$490	+$5
VeryLucky888CTR	Netsavg 48¢	$240	$245	+$7.5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$15.59	$14.99	-$0.45	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$8.5	$8.33	-$0.09	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Netsavg 48¢	$3.68	$3.76	+$0.04	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0.08	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

JAMJAMJAM4

Pacers

Invested

$1,250.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.26

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,010

Value

$990

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

Both legs:

Invested

$240

Value

$245

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pacers

Invested

$15.59

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$0.45

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

hi774cCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nets) and the top 1000 (5 on Pacers) disagree here.

sharpPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.