Nets vs. Pelicans
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (25%) · Pelicans at 64¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pelicans
8
Pelicans 25%
$3.6K
$29.73
63¢ → 63.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPelicans at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Pelicansavg 63¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$22.43 | 61% 922-593 (1515) |
VE VenusianCTR | Netsavg 37¢ | $426.98 | $426.98 | +$0 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Netsavg 36¢ | $184.5 | $189.63 | +$5.13 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Pelicansavg 63¢ | $45.5 | $45.5 | +$0 | 54% 562-474 (1036) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36¢ | $40.17 | $41.29 | +$1.12 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36¢ | $23.55 | $24.26 | +$0.71 | 22% 33-116 (149) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36.7¢ | $19.4 | $19.56 | +$0.15 | 48% 658-706 (1364) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36¢ | $7.2 | $7.4 | +$0.2 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
Invested
$2,825.85
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$22.43
Record
61%
922-593 (1515)
Invested
$426.98
Value
$426.98
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
Invested
$184.5
Value
$189.63
PnL
+$5.13
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
562-474 (1036)
Invested
$40.17
Value
$41.29
PnL
+$1.12
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$23.55
Value
$24.26
PnL
+$0.71
Record
22%
33-116 (149)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.56
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
658-706 (1364)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.